REVISTA DYNA MANAGEMENT

Key words:

Risk Analysis, Critical Path, Time management, Monte Carlo (MCM), PERT, Palabras clave: Análisis de riesgos, Ruta crítica, CPM, Gestión del tiempo, MCM

Article type:

ARTICULO DE INVESTIGACION / RESEARCH ARTICLE

Section:

RESEARCH ARTICLES

ABSTRACT:
One of the main restriction in the management of projects is the time. For decades, the time management in works of civil construction has been administrated by the application of the PERT/CPM method and their risks associated by the PERT-Risk (Probabilistic Critical Path). However, this method presents specific limitations. The advent and facilitation to the access of computational tools have enabled the application of Monte Carlo Method (MCM) in order to perform random simulations of the process directed to data base creation. The purpose of this study is ascertain the variations found in the traditional application of the PERT-Risk Method (Probabilistic Critical Path) combined with the simulations performed through the MCM in schedules developed by the means of network precedence, using as the object of study a simplified project of the construction of an edification. In this study, it is realised that, despite of the presentation of the remarkable correlation in the results of both methods, the application of MCM has surpassed the limitations of PERT-Risk method and has demonstrated more restriction, submitting accurate in the results. The MMC also presented a differential for making joint use of all network activities, whether considered as critical or not. This allowed for the classification of these activities in terms of the influence generated by the final project completion period and the expansion of the analysis for the study of cost and resource variability, whether or not linked to the variation of deadlines.

Key-words: Risk Analysis; Critical Path; CPM; Time management; Monte Carlo (MCM); PERT